Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
