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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. Under an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still