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It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Title Contenders?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to answer. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.

According to the data, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have just won 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

His opener came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• The winger might become the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Savoring the Moment

However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.